As you may know, Atalaya Mining Plc (LON:ATYM) recently released its full year numbers. It seems that the results were a bit negative overall. While revenue of €406 million was in line with analysts’ forecasts, statutory profit came in below expectations, missing estimates by 2.9% to €0.94 per share. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know if they think there has been a strong change in the company’s outlook, or if business is as it is. habit. Readers will be happy to know that we have aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see if analysts have changed their minds on Atalaya Mining after the latest results.
Discover our latest analysis for Atalaya Mining
Given the latest results, the consensus forecast from Atalaya Mining’s five analysts is €428.9m in revenue in 2022, which would reflect a satisfying 5.7% improvement in sales over the past 12 months. . Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall by 11% to €0.85 over the same period. Looking ahead to this report, analysts had modeled revenue of €435.0 million and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.93 in 2022. Analysts seem to have become a bit more negative on the company after the latest results, given their slightly lower earnings per share for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at UK£5.08, with analysts apparently voting that their lower earnings outlook is unlikely to drive the stock price lower for the foreseeable future. Fixing on a single price target, however, can be unwise because the consensus target is actually the average of the analysts’ price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any differing opinions on the company’s valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Atalaya Mining at £5.50 per share, while the most bearish one values it at £4.60. Even so, with a relatively close group of estimates, it seems analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting that Atalaya Mining is an easy-to-predict company or that analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these predictions is to put them in context with the industry itself. It’s pretty clear that Atalaya Mining’s revenue growth is expected to slow significantly, with revenue through the end of 2022 expected to show growth of 5.7% on an annualized basis. This is compared to an historic growth rate of 21% over the past five years. In contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are expected to see revenue decline by 4.0% annually. Taking into account the expected slowdown in growth, it is quite clear that Atalaya Mining should still grow faster than the overall industry.
The most important thing to remember is that analysts have lowered their earnings per share estimates, which shows that there has been a clear drop in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Atalaya Mining’s revenue should outperform the industry as a whole. The consensus price target held steady at UK£5.08 as the latest estimates were not enough to impact their price targets.
Continuing this thinking, we believe that the company’s long-term outlook is much more relevant than next year’s results. We have forecasts for Atalaya Mining until 2024, and you can see them for free on our platform here.
We don’t want to rain too much on the parade, but we also found 3 warning signs for Atalaya Mining (1 is potentially serious!) of which you should be aware.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.